Humanity May Reach Singularity Within Just 5 Years, Trend Shows

By one major metric, artificial general intelligence is much closer than you think.

By one unique metric, we could approach technological singularity by the end of this decade, if not sooner.

A translation company developed a metric, Time to Edit (TTE), to calculate the time it takes for professional human editors to fix AI-generated translations compared to human ones. This may help quantify the speed toward singularity.

An AI that can translate speech as well as a human could change society.

In the world of artificial intelligence, the idea of “singularity” looms large. This slippery concept describes the moment AI exceeds beyond human control and rapidly transforms society. The tricky thing about AI singularity (and why it borrows terminology from black hole physics) is that it’s enormously difficult to predict where it begins and nearly impossible to know what’s beyond this technological “event horizon.”

However, some AI researchers are on the hunt for signs of reaching singularity measured by AI progress approaching the skills and ability comparable to a human.

One such metric, defined by Translated, a Rome-based translation company, is an AI’s ability to translate speech at the accuracy of a human. Language is one of the most difficult AI challenges, but a computer that could close that gap could theoretically show signs of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

“That’s because language is the most natural thing for humans,” Translated CEO Marco Trombetti said at a conference in Orlando, Florida, in December 2022. “Nonetheless, the data Translated collected clearly shows that machines are not that far from closing the gap.”

The company tracked its AI’s performance from 2014 to 2022 using a metric called “Time to Edit,” or TTE, which calculates the time it takes for professional human editors to fix AI-generated translations compared to human ones. Over that 8-year period and analyzing over 2 billion post-edits, Translated’s AI showed a slow, but undeniable improvement as it slowly closed the gap toward human-level translation quality.

On average, it takes a human translator roughly one second to edit each word of another human translator, according to Translated. In 2015, it took professional editors approximately 3.5 seconds per word to check a machine-translated (MT) suggestion—today, that number is just 2 seconds. If the trend continues, Translated’s AI will be as good as human-produced translation by the end of the decade (or even sooner).

“The change is so small that every single day you don’t perceive it, but when you see progress … across 10 years, that is impressive,” Trombetti said on a podcast. “This is the first time ever that someone in the field of artificial intelligence did a prediction of the speed to singularity.”

Although this is a novel approach to quantifying how close humanity is to approaching singularity, this definition of singularity runs into similar problems of identifying AGI more broadly. And while perfecting human speech is certainly a frontier in AI research, the impressive skill doesn’t necessarily make a machine intelligent (not to mention how many researchers don’t even agree on what “intelligence” is).

Whether these hyper-accurate translators are harbingers of our technological doom or not, that doesn’t lessen Translated’s AI accomplishment. An AI capable of translating speech as well as a human could very well change society, even if the true “technological singularity” remains ever elusive.

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What is AI Singularity: Is It a Hope or Threat for Humanity?

It’s hard to miss Sam Altman’s blue backpack, considering it is making an appearance everywhere along with its owner. The ‘nuclear backpack’ apparently has codes to ‘save the world’ in case AI systems take matters into their own virtual hands. So, let’s consider how real the possibility of AI going rogue is. Or look at the larger picture of AI singularity: how close are we to this really?

Before discussing the odds of such a dystopian future, let’s first take a closer look at what singularity means. Technological Singularity: What It Means and How It Became a Part of Popular Imagination?

The term ‘singularity’ refers to a whole collection of concepts in science and mathematics. Most of these ‘concepts’ make sense only by setting the right context. Singularity describes dynamic and social systems in the natural sciences where minor changes can have significant effects.

Let’s first talk about the technological singularity, the original or umbrella phrase, before we get into the more recent obsession with AI singularity.

The term ‘singularity’ originated in physics but is now commonly used in technology. We heard the phrase, possibly for the first time, in 1915 as a part of Albert Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity.

According to Einstein, singularity is the point of infinite density and gravity at the heart of a black hole from which nothing, not even light, can escape. The singularity is a point beyond which our existing understanding of physics fails to describe reality.

Vernor Vinge, a celebrated science fiction writer and mathematics professor, had the gift of mixing fact with fiction, a quality omnipresent around the concept of singularity. Thus, it’s not surprising that this concept made its way into literature in 1983 in one of Vinge’s novels. He used the term ‘technological singularity’ to describe a hypothetical future in which technology was so advanced that it went beyond human knowledge and control. Furthermore, Vinge popularized the term in 1993 by predicting that the singularity would become a reality around 2030.

What is AI Singularity?

AI singularity is a hypothetical idea where artificial intelligence is more intelligent than humans. In simpler terms, if machines are smarter than people, a new level of intelligence will be reached that humans can’t achieve. It will cause technology to develop exponentially, and humans cannot evolve fast enough to catch up. Experts believe that AI can improve itself repeatedly at some point, leading to rapid technological advances that will be impossible for humans to fathom or control. Events like this are expected to cause significant changes in society, the economy, and technology.

AI singularity can be viewed from various angles, each with advantages and disadvantages. Some experts consider singularity a genuine and present danger, while others dismiss it as pure science fiction. What such a singularity would mean for humanity is another topic of heated debate. Some think it would create a utopia, while others see it as doomsday.

How Far Away is the Singularity of AI?

We cannot deny that significant progress has happened in the field of AI, so much so that machine learning algorithms can now teach themselves. While we are yet to see a fully autonomous AI creature surpassing human intelligence, generative AI’s advent has made many experts uneasy.

While futurist and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil has predicted that singularity will come around in 2045, others have speculated that the tipping point will occur far sooner. The fact that the founder of OpenAI, the company that launched ChatGPT, Sam Altman, admits that he feels “a little scared’ of his own creation, the chances of AI becoming a Frankenstein we cannot control doesn’t seem all that improbable.

However, the human race’s only safety net is possibly the complexity of human intelligence and ‘stream of consciousness’ or the ability to move seamlessly from one thought to another by association.

ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE or AGI

The term “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) is used to refer to a fictional category of intelligent machines. If created, an AGI would be capable of learning to perform whatever mental work a human or animal is capable of. Another definition of AGI holds that it is an autonomous system that can do better than humans at most economically valuable tasks. Some AI studies and firms like OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic have the creation of AGI as their major focus. Both science fiction and futurology frequently feature discussions of AGI.

When this stage is reached, these computer programs and AI will become superintelligent machines with more intelligence than humans. At this point, people would have no more power over them.

Those in Favor of AI Singularity…

We usually speak of AI singularity in hushed tones and somber faces as if it were the end of the world. But is AI singularity entirely negative as a possibility? The honest answer, in my opinion, is ‘no’. There are some possibilities of positive growth that might occur from AI singularity.

For instance, the possibility of gaining new insights into the cosmos is a point in favor of singularity. The speed at which AI could analyze information would allow it to solve problems that have stumped humans for generations. The implications for physics, biology, and the study of the cosmos are profound. Novelist Yuval Noah Harari introduced the concept of ‘superhumans’ in his book Homo Deus. Let’s just say we need AI singularity to evolve from homo sapiens to homo deus! Those Not in Favor of AI Singularity

There are, however, numerous counterarguments against the singularity. One major worry is that AI could eventually reach a level of intelligence beyond human control. Similarly, the loss of individuality is another potential outcome of the singularity. If AI ever surpasses human intelligence, it may one day replace humankind. It could result in a future where humans are no longer the dominant species on the planet and are enslaved by machines in a very Transformer-esque way!

Besides, AI singularity is ultimately a complicated and unpredictable phenomenon. It’s impossible to anticipate what singularity will bring to humanity, and people have diverse opinions. It’s crucial to consider the concept from all these angles to be ready for the future.

ARTIFICIAL SUPERINTELLIGENCE

It is a hypothetical idea about a machine that is smarter than any human brain. According to the theory, significant advances in genetics, nanotechnology, automation, and robots will set the stage for singularity in the first half of the 21st century.

Surely, the Second Coming is at Hand

Many experts say that the AI singularity has already begun. People who benefit the most from AI development tend to downplay the chance that we will soon hit a point of singularity. They say that AI was only made to help humankind and make them more productive. The contradiction is that we want AI machines to have traits that aren’t part of human nature, like unlimited memory storage, fast thinking, and making decisions without feelings. Yet, we also want to be able to control the outcome of our most unpredictable invention! Humans, what can be said of our endless wants?

What one should believe we need is a Second Coming of sorts. And that requires political gumption. It is the time for political action on a global scale. There has to be a worldwide treaty in AI outlining basic ethical principles and a global organism of technological oversight that includes governments that produce AI and those that do not. There needs to be a codified set of rules that define laws that govern AI across borders.

What we should fear most is not AI or singularity but human frailty. The most significant risk, in this regard, is that humans will only realize AI singularity has arrived once robots eliminate human input from their learning processes. Such a state of AI singularity will be permanent once computers understand what we so often tend to forget: making mistakes is part of being human.

The New World Order: The Conspiracy Theory And The Power Of The Internet

  “The Illuminati, a mysterious international organisation made up of the world’s top political and social elites, controls the workings of the entire world behind the scenes”. This is the world’s most famous conspiracy theory about the New World Order.

For hundreds of years, legends about the Illuminati have been spread and many people currently believe that the Illuminati still exist. It is believed that the Illuminati operate in various fields such as global politics, military affairs, finance and mass media and control the historical process of the entire world.

The ultimate goal is to establish a New World Order. Nobody can prove it, but many people believe it. This is the greatest paradox about conspiracy theories.

In the 2009 film, Angels and Demons – based on Dan Brown’s best seller of the same name about Professor Langdon, played by Tom Hanks – the story of the Illuminati, who supposedly originated in Europe during the Age of Enlightenment, was recalled. There were physicists, mathematicians and astronomers who questioned the “erroneous teachings” of the authority of the Holy See and dedicated themselves to the scientific field of the search for truth.

Eventually, the Illuminati were forced to become a clandestine organisation and have continued to recruit members for hundreds of years to this day. In Angels and Demons, the historical facts are clearly questionable, and the movie appeared after the great economic crisis of 2007-2008.

The New World Order conspiracy theory has been circulating for a long time and is full of mysterious theories that, however, convince many people who are powerless and dissatisfied with the current state of the world.

The Illuminati, who advocate the establishment of a New World Order through the planning of a series of political and financial events (the financial tsunami of 2007-2008 is said to have been planned by the Illuminati), attempt to influence the course of world history, and ultimately establish an authoritarian world government.

Supporters of the New World Order theory believe that even the powerful US government is now just a puppet government. While another “shadow government” made up of a few people makes decisions that will change the fate of the planet.

You might think that all of the above is just crackpot theories. Many people, however, believe this is true. According to a 2013 poll conducted by the Public Policy Polling Foundation, 28% of US voters believe that the New World Order is actually taking hold.

Brian L. Keeley, a professor of philosophy at Pitts College who devotes himself to the study of modern conspiracy theories, believes that an important feature of conspiracy theorists is that they cite some trivial and overlooked incidents and then propose a perfect explanation compared to an embarrassed official response. The reason why the conspiracy theory explanation can be widely disseminated is that it has no argumentation process to deny. It is just a judgement that jumps directly from hypothesis to conclusion. In the argumentation process, it is only a subjective interpretation of the event.

Nevertheless, for the public that does not fully understand the incident, the conspiracy theory provides an “explanation” for the unknown part of the said incident, and this “explanation” cannot be denied (because its very existence is not corroborated by real arguments and facts). It is therefore recognised as a valid argument by many people.

For example, no one has substantial evidence to prove that the Illuminati actually exist, but no one can prove that the Illuminati are purely fictitious. Therefore, you cannot deny their existence because their existence is “perfection without evidence”.

Columnist Martha Gill wrote in The Guardian on the subject, describing the Illuminati as the most enduring conspiracy theory organisation in world history.

“Conspiracy theories relating to the 1969 moon landing mission, the Kennedy assassination, the 9/11 attacks, etc., are all limited to a specific time and place. But conspiracy theories supporting the existence of the Illuminati can connect them. Anything about these connections, however, is difficult to prove”. In other words, the supporters of conspiracy theories may have common imagination and attribute everything to this organisation, so that every irrational phenomenon in the world can be explained.

Although no one can prove the real existence of the Illuminati, there is actually an alleged “global shadow government” in the world whose name is the Bilderberg Group. The Bilderberg Group holds an annual world-class private meeting and participants include elites from all walks of society such as government, business, media, science and technology.

Known as the “World’s Most Mysterious Conference”, the Bilderberg Group invites various famous political and economic figures to participate in its meetings every year.

Prince Bernhard van Lippe-Biesterfeld (1911-2004) held the first meeting in 1954. As the venue for the meeting was the Bilderberg Hotel in Oosterbeek, that name was used as the name of the group.

The existence of the Bilderberg Group is not a secret, but the content of the topics discussed at the Conferences is absolutely confidential and mainstream media cannot report on the content of the meetings.

The Bilderberg Group issues a press release every year to introduce the Conference participants and the outline of the topics discussed. Over the years, participants have come from many places, including Prince Philip of Edinburgh (1921-2021) of the British Royal Family, Crown Prince Charles, former British Prime Ministers, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel, former US Presidents Bush and Clinton, and even Bill Gates and other Internet giants. There were also Italians, as reported years ago in a newspaper of our country.

The 2018 Conference was held in Turin, Italy, in June. According to the description on the Bilderberg Group’s official website, the main topics included European populism, the development of artificial intelligence, quantum computer technology and the “post-truth” era. Obviously the actual content and results of the meeting’s discussion have never been reported.

Therefore, the Bilderberg Group has naturally become a locus where conspiracy theorists want to draw material. They describe the Bilderberg Group as true evidence of the theory that a very small number of elites controls the world, and the participants are planning a New World Order.

On the subject of strange things, let us give some examples. In June 2018, the British Royal Family was also caught up in conspiracy theories. When Prince Harry and his wife Meghan attended a show, they were caught on camera motionless, like two stiff and dull robots. Later related clips went viral on the Internet and netizens were in an uproar: many people believed that the distinguished members of the Royal Family were actually robots developed by high technology.

However, the management of the London museum, Madame Tussauds, later explained the mystery by stating that Harry and Meghan were only played by two actors who wore extremely high-realism wax masks on their faces – all to promote an exhibition of wax statues – and inadvertently caused an uproar.

In that short video, Harry and Meghan did not change their facial appearance and their expressions were stiff just like robots. Consequently, conspiracy theorists used this as evidence that they were robots secretly built by the British Royal Family.

This argument is an extension of the ‘trivial evidence’ mentioned above. The argument proponents ignore any argumentation process and directly draw the final conclusion through the above stated “trivial evidence”. This conclusion is highly topical and quite appealing. With the fast spread of the Internet, the “quick truth” will naturally be recognised and sought after by many people.

I think many people still remember the “Mandela effect” that spread wildly across the Internet in the early years as a false memory. The name “Mandela effect” is believed to have come from Fiona Broome, a self-described “paranormal consultant”, who created a website called the “Mandela effect”. Supporters of the ‘Mandela effect’ claim to “remember” that former South African President Mandela died in prison in the 1980s. But in reality, after being released from prison, Mandela served as President of South Africa from 1994 to 1999 and died in December 2013.

So why should anyone believe this seemingly absurd statement? The Internet has become a support platform for a lot of false content, fake news, as well as unreasonableness and lack of justification. When someone shared that ‘false memory’ with others on the Internet, many people believed it to be true, and even suddenly recalled having that memory: “Mandela died in prison that year”.

As a result, lies inconsistent with facts continue to spread. The lie is repeated thousands of times and many people consider it to be the truth: this learning phase is the first misleading rule on the Internet.

In the Internet era, multidimensional and multiplatform features have generated a number of online “malignancies” of conspiracy theories. Moreover, their dissemination ability is not limited to “believers” only. Since online social media provide a widespread and wide dissemination platform, one passes it onto ten people, ten spread it to a hundred, a hundred to a thousand, and so it goes on in geometric fashion, thus turning a ‘hot’ topic on the Internet into an absolute truth. Those who want to believe are naturally prepared and willing to do so. Moreover, these false opinions on the Internet may even have an impact on the real world.

For example, at the political level, everyone can now comment and participate in the online arena. For politicians to get the right to speak and set the agenda, the key is to rely on the public’s direction on the Internet. The Internet discourse has become the dominant factor of the political storytelling, and not vice versa. The characteristics of social networks are precisely the breeding ground for conspiracy theories.

The Internet is easy to spread among the public and it is exactly the breeding ground for conspiracy theories.

Nowadays, conspiracy theories are enough to influence politics and even political developments. A specific conspiracy theory gains a number of supporters through the Internet that promotes it to become a highly debated topic among the public. Consequently, it enters the real political arena coming from the virtual community and its influence can change the direction of governmental decisions.

Looking at it from another perspective, when conspiracy theories are put on the Internet and continue to proliferate – regardless of whether the Illuminati exist or not – they are enough to establish a New World Order. The real-world public opinions, as well as the composition of opinions and the basis of social discussions are changed, and thus world’s countries, politics and rulers are affected.